. .. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT .. .

Information drawn from various sources as indicated

China is playing a major role in financing renewable energy.

According to the UNEP study of Global Trends in Renewable Energy , as of 2015, China has invested $101.9 billion in renewable energy, 36% of the world’s total. The US is a distant second, at $44.1 billion.

New investment in renewable energy by country and asset class, 2015, and growth on 2014 – Source: UNEP, Bloomberg new energy finance
(Click on image to enlarge)

Of course, the bulk of their investment is in China itself, but their investment is also noticeable in Latin America.

According to PV Magazine, Argentina is investing US $ 340 million in three solar facilities to generate 100 megawatts each. They are being built by three Chinese enterprises: Power China, Shanghai Electric and Talseun

Also in Argentina, according to Rio Negro, the country is investing US $250 million in wind farms to be supplied by Envision Energy, a Chinese firm.

Meanwhile, in Mexico’s inaugural power auction in April, according to PV Magazine , the Chinese solar power firm JinkoSolar signed long-term power purchase agreements with Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission for three solar projects due to produce 188 MW by April 2018. According to the Bloomberg Company JinkoSolar is one of the fastest growing companies in the world.

According to Business News Americas, almost all the major solar power module manufacturers are Chinese, while five of the top ten wind blade manufacturers are Chinese – led by Goldwind, the biggest wind turbine supplier in the world. Goldwind has said it is interested in developing manufacturing facilities in Brazil and has also supplied turbines to projects in Ecuador, Panama, Bolivia and Chile.

Looking to the future, according the the UNEP study, China’s R&D spending challenged Europe’s for the first time in 2015, each investing $2.8 billion.. In third place, the US edged up to $1.5 billion. Solar continues to dominate renewable energy R&D, with spending rising to $4.5 billion and equal to that in all the other sectors combined.

Are we making progress in renewable energy?

.. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ..

An article by Joe Romm in Think Progress (abbreviated)

Solar energy has grown 100-fold in this country [USA] in the past decade. Globally, solar has doubled seven times since 2000, and Dubai received a bid recently for 800 megawatts of solar at a stunning “US 2.99 cents per kilowatt hour” — unsubsidized! For context, the average residential price for electricity in the United States is 12 cents per kilowatt-hour.

Solar’s exponentially declining costs and exponentially rising installations
(the y-axis is a logarithmic scale).
(Click on image to enlarge)

Solar energy has been advancing considerably faster than anyone expected just a few years ago thanks to aggressive market-based deployment efforts around the globe. Since it’s hard to keep up with the speed-of-light changes, and this is the fuel that will power more and more of the global economy in the near future, here are all the latest charts and facts to understand it. If you are looking for one chart to sum up the whole solar energy miracle, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Chairman Michael Liebreich has one from his keynote address at BNEF’s annual conference in April titled “In Search of the Miraculous” [see chart above]:

Thanks to sustained long-term deployment programs, Liebreich explained, “We’ve seen the costs come down by a factor of 150 since 1975. We’ve seen volume up by 115,000.” “How much more miracle-y do you need your miracles to be,” Liebreich added.

What that chart doesn’t reveal is that the price drop and the sales volume increase are directly linked. There is a learning curve: Over the past four decades, for every doubling in scale of the solar industry, the price of solar modules has dropped roughly 26 percent. . .

BNEF projects that by 2040, the world will invest an astonishing $3.4 trillion in solar. That’s more than the projected cumulative investment of $2.1 trillion for all fossil fuels — and $1.1 trillion in new nuclear — combined.

The result of these investments and the continued learning by solar (and wind) makes “these two technologies the cheapest ways of producing electricity in many countries during the 2020s and in most of the world in the 2030s. . . ”

This year we learned “City of Palo Alto considers solar power contract at under $37/MWh.” Bloomberg reported last week that “Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s NV Energy agreed to pay 3.87 cents a kilowatt-hour for power from a 100-megawatt project that First Solar Inc. is developing.”

It is worth remembering that U.S. solar power bids include the 30 percent Investment Tax Credit. According to one analysis, NV Energy’s “$.0387/kWh would potentially turn into about $.07/kWh if we backed out the 30% Federal Tax Credit and 60% depreciation in Year One.”

The bids seen around the world this year without subsidies or incentives are even more stunning. Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) received a bid this year for 800 megawatts at a jaw-dropping “US 2.99 cents per kilowatt hour.”

Two other bids were below US 4 cents/kWh, and the last two bids were both below 4.5 cents/kWh — again all of these bids were without subsidies!

That 2.99 cents bid is way down from a 2015 deal Dubai signed for more than 1000 megawatts at 5.84 cents over 25 years. So Dubai has seen a 50 percent price drop in solar in just 18 months.

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Are we making progress in renewable energy?

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And these prices aren’t unique to the Middle East. As Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported in April, Enel Green power signed a contract for $.036/kWh in in Mexico — 3.6 cents.

With prices dropping so fast, sales of solar PV [photovoltaic] systems have been soaring, as you can imagine.

From 2005 through 2015, annual PV sales in this country went up 100-fold! And projections suggest that solar sales may double this year, driven by Congress’s five-year renewal (with phase-out) of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC). . .

The solar miracle has been driven by major state, national, and international policies. BNEF Chair Liebreich calls this “The March of the Price Signal” — the rapid expansion of global deployment programs, especially market-based mechanisms such as renewable portfolio standards and reverse auctions.

Unfortunately, other countries have had bigger and more reliable deployment programs whereas our erratic policies generally diminish or disappear whenever and wherever conservatives assume control. In the past decade in particular, massive government-led deployment policies in China and Germany have been a major driver of the world’s stunning price drop.

The good news is that solar power in this country has a very bright future, thanks to the renewal of the ITC. By one recent projection, the U.S. could hit 100 gigawatts total installed capacity by 2021. That said, India also plans to hit 100 gigawatts by 2022.

China, however, plans to triple solar PV capacity to 150 gigawatts installed by 2020! So the race is definitely on.

No wonder the International Energy Agency concluded last fall: “Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source.”

The ‘Other’ Form Of Solar Energy, Which Can Run At Night

Earlier this month, I wrote about the “other” form of solar, concentrating solar thermal power, which uses sunlight to heat water and uses the steam to drive a turbine and generator. That heat can be stored over 20 times more cheaply than electricity — and much more efficiently — so CSP [Concentrated Solar Power] can provide power long after the sun has gone down.

Now that China appears to be placing a large bet on solar thermal electric, it seems likely CSP will also start coming down the learning curve, which will help it increase sales, which in turn will keep it coming down the learning curve — a virtuous circle that PV is already benefiting from.

The 2014 STE Technology Roadmap from the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that while PV could generate 16 percent of the world’s electricity by 2050, as much as 11 percent could be generated by STE [solar thermal energy] at the same time.

Given how fast solar PV has been coming down in price — and given the world’s commitment in Paris last December to keep ratcheting down carbon pollution in the coming decades to keep total global warming “well below 2°C” — it seems entirely possible if not likely that solar power will outperform the IEA’s scenario.

Indeed, it’s precisely because clean energy has been moving at the speed of light that “almost everything you know about climate change solutions is probably outdated,” as I’ve been detailing for months. Stay tuned to this channel for more surprises.

(Thank you to Janet Hudgins, the CPNN reporter for this article.)

. . SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT . .

A blog by David Doniger and Alex Hillbrand for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)

At 6:55 on Saturday morning [October 14], more than 140 countries sealed a landmark deal, called the Kigali Amendment, to phase down the powerful climate-warming pollutants called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the Montreal Protocol, the treaty that saved the ozone layer.

Source: Guus Velders, RMI, reprinted by NRDC by permission
(click on image to enlarge)

Almost ten years after NRDC and others first proposed amending the Montreal treaty to curb HFCs, countries reached a deal that will avoid rampant growth in these dangerous chemicals, eliminate most current uses over time, and replace them with a new generation of alternative chemicals and products that are climate-friendlier and more energy-efficient.

The HFC agreement establishes timetables for all developed and developing countries to freeze and then reduce their production and use of HFCs, chemicals used in air conditioning, refrigeration, insulating foams, and other applications.

HFCs are the fastest growing climate pollutants, and they pack hundreds to thousands of times the climate-warming punch of carbon dioxide, pound for pound. Scientists estimate that HFCs could add up to 0.5° Celsius to global temperatures by century’s end if their growth is not checked, dooming our chances to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s target of holding warming below 2.0°Celsius.

But the new agreement will avoid this disaster. A new analysis by Dr. Guus Velders and colleagues projects that the Kigali amendment will avoid nearly 90 percent of the temperature increase that HFCs could have caused.

NRDC estimates that the agreed HFC phase-down will avoid the equivalent of more than 80 billion tons of CO2 over the next 35 years. (This includes controls on emissions of HFC-23 emissions occurring as a byproduct of HCFC-22 production, which also was agreed in Kigali.)

This is equivalent to knocking out the entire planet’s fossil-fuel CO2 emissions for more than two years.

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Despite the vested interests of companies and governments, Can we make progress toward sustainable development?

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This is the biggest step to protect against catastrophic climate change that countries have taken in the year since the landmark Paris agreement.

The HFC phase-down will trigger further reductions in CO2 emissions from power plants because more efficient air conditioners and other equipment will require less electricity.

Under the amendment, developed countries agreed to make their first HFCs cuts by 2019; in fact, the U.S., the European Union, and other countries have already started. Developed countries will also take the lead in bringing climate-friendly, energy-efficient alternatives to market.

China, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, and more than 100 other developing countries committed to freeze their HFC production and use by 2024, and reduce in subsequent steps. India, Gulf States, and Pakistan agreed to make HFC reductions on a slower track, starting with a freeze in 2028 (three years earlier than India had originally proposed).

Developed nations committed to provide additional funds through the Montreal Protocol’s Multilateral Fund to support developing countries in achieving their commitments. The agreement also opens the door for countries that choose to move faster to benefit from early MLF funding, and for the MLF to support energy efficiency improvements alongside the reduction of HFCs.

While funding for the MLF’s next three-year cycle will be negotiated next year, developed country parties have pledged new funding to support developing countries’ adoption of alternatives. A group of countries pledged to provide an additional $27 million in “fast start” financing for next year, and this will be matched by $53 million from a coalition of 19 philanthropies, for a total of $80 million.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, speaking to the plenary Friday afternoon, urged countries to deliver an ambitious agreement and to bet on the future of clean energy technology, noting that “ten years in this world of technology is a lifetime – many lifetimes, in fact.”

So, on a warm Kigali night in October, the Montreal Protocol that saved the ozone layer has taken on its shoulders the responsibility to help solve the global climate crisis. If this treaty succeeds as spectacularly as before, tonight will mark a major turning point in the fight to keep our planet safe for generations to come.