DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

A synopsis of the analysis made by the International Campaign to Ban Nuclear Weapons.

In addition to the vote on resolution 71/71 last December, the following analysis is based on whether or not a country is participating in the ongoing negotiations for the treaty and whether or not it has made a public commitment in favor of a ban on nuclear weapons.

FOR THE TREATY

The treaty is supported by all of the African countries except Mali (unclear), all of the Latin American countries except Nicaragua (unclear), and all countries of the Arab region except Morocco, Sudan and Syria (all unclear). No country from these regions is clearly against the treaty. With the exception of the nuclear countries, Japan and South Korea, the other countries of South and East Asia are for the treaty, as well as countries of the Pacific other than Australia and Micronesia.

AGAINST THE TREATY

Here are the countries that are clearly against the treaty:

All of the nuclear countries: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, United Kingdom, United States

Most European countries: Albania, Belgium, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine.

Other allies of Europe and the U.S.: Australia, Canada, Japan, Micronesia, South Korea, Turkey.

Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands and Switzerland are the only major European countries that are not clearly against the treaty. Austria, Ireland and Sweden clearly support the treaty. Netherlands and Switzerland abstained from the vote and, unlike most other European countries, they are participating in the ongoing negotiations.

UNCLEAR POSITION

Many former republics of the Soviet Union are unclear about their position: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan

Other countries that are unclear about their support are Andorra, Finland, Mali, Monaco, Morocco, Nicaragua, Sudan, Syria.

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DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

Statement published on the website of Reaching Critical Will

This statement was delivered by Ms. Ray Acheson, Director of WILPF’s disarmament programme Reaching Critical Will, to the 2017 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee in Vienna, Austria on 3 May 2017.

All of the nuclear-armed states—including those that are states parties to the NPT—are investing in the expansion, development, or so-called modernisation of their nuclear arsenals. These programmes are not just about “increasing the safety and security” of nuclear weapon systems, which is what the nuclear-armed states claim. The “upgrades” in many cases provide new capabilities to the weapon systems. They also extend the lives of these weapon systems beyond the middle of this century, ensuring that the arms race will continue indefinitely.

China is transitioning from liquid-fueled slow-launching missiles to solid-fuel, quicker-launching road-mobile missiles, to make the force more “useable”. Recently China has also sped up the modernisation of its sea-based strategic force, replacing its first generation ballistic nuclear missile-carrying submarines.[i]

France has replaced its sea-launched ballistic missiles for its current class of submarines,[ii] and is also planning to develop new missiles for a new class of submarines.[iii] It has carried out studies for a next-generation air-launched cruise missile.[iv] Half of its nuclear bomber force has been upgraded so far.

Russia is modernising its main silo- and road-mobile ICBM.[v] It is also developing a new silo-based ICBM,[vi] and is upgrading its ballistic missile submarine force.[vii] It’s also working on its nuclear attack submarines and nuclear-capable cruise missiles,[viii] as well as its bombers.[ix]

The UK parliament voted in favour in July 2016 of renewing its Trident nuclear weapon system. This means that the UK’s Vanguard-class submarines will be replaced with the “Dreadnought”-class of submarines.[x] In 2019, the UK will also make a decision about the design of a new warhead.[xi]

The United States is developing a new class of ballistic missile submarines, a new long-range bomber with nuclear capability, a new air-launched cruise missile, a next-generation land-based ICBM, and a new nuclear-capable tactical fighter aircraft. It will also include work on warheads and nuclear command and control facilities.[xii]

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More examples, including from non-NPT states parties, can be found in WILPF’s updated study Assuring destruction forever.[xiii]

The only way to prevent states from modernising their nuclear weapons is to prohibit and eliminate these weapons. In the meantime, NPT states parties are already legally obligated to end the nuclear arms race and achieve nuclear disarmament.

This NPT outcome should reflect the serious concern expressed by many states parties about modernisation and development of nuclear weapon systems, and call for the cessation of such programmes, which violate article VI of the NPT and entrench double standards.

[i] “Annual Report to Congress – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, 24 April 2014, http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_DoD_China_Report.pdf.
[ii] Julien Bonnet, “Tir d’essai réussi pour le missile nucléaire M51,” L’UsineNouvelle, 1 July 2016; “Successful M51 Ballistic Missile SLBM Test by French Defense Procurement Agency DGA,” Navy Recognition, 30 September 2015.
[iii] Speech by François Hollande, Visit to the Strategic Air Forces, 25 February 2015, http://basedoc.diplomatie.gouv.fr/vues/Kiosque/FranceDiplomatie/kiosque.php?fichier=baen2015-02-25.html.
[iv] JeanYves Le Drian, Defense Minister, Closing Remarks – Symposium for 50 Years of Deterrence, 20 November 2014, http://www.defense.gouv.fr/ministre/prises-de-parole-du-ministre/prises-de-parole-de-m.-jean-yves-le-drian/discours-de-cloture-du-colloque-pour-les-50-ans-de-la-dissuasion.
[v] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Russian nuclear forces, 2017,” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Vol. 73, No. 2, pp. 119–120; Pavel Podvig, “Flight tests of Barguzin rail-mobile ICBM are said to begin in 2019,” Russian strategic nuclear forces, 19 January 2017.
[vi] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 120.
[vii] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 121.
[viii] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 123.
[ix] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 122.
[x] John Ainslie, The Trident shambles, Scottish CND, March 2016, http://www.banthebomb.org/images/stories/pdfs/shambles.pdf.
[xi] National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015, op. cit., p. 35.
[xii] Kristensen and Norris, op. cit., p. 49.
[xiii] See http://reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Publications/modernization/assuring-destruction-forever-2017.pdf.

DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

An article from ICAN, the International Campaign to Ban Nuclear Weapons

The first draft of the United Nations treaty to prohibit nuclear weapons was released in Geneva, Switzerland, on 22 May. Elayne Whyte Gómez, the Costa Rican ambassador who is presiding over negotiations of the historic accord, presented the text to diplomats and members of civil society, before answering questions from the media.

The draft was developed on the basis of discussions and input received during the first round of negotiations, held at the UN headquarters in New York from 27 to 31 March 2017, with the participation of 132 nations. The negotiations will resume on 15 June and continue until 7 July, with the draft as the basis.

ICAN welcomes the release of the draft as an important milestone in the years-long effort to ban these indiscriminate weapons of mass destruction in light of their inhumane and catastrophic impacts. Once adopted, the treaty will constitute an major step towards the total elimination of nuclear weapons.

The draft provides a solid basis for a strong, categorical prohibition of nuclear weapons. ICAN expects further constructive debate on certain provisions as the process moves forward, and will be campaigning to ensure the strongest possible treaty. We are confident that the treaty can be agreed by 7 July.

“We are particularly happy that the text is rooted in humanitarian principles and builds on existing prohibitions of unacceptable weapons, such as the conventions banning biological and chemical weapons, anti-personnel landmines and cluster munitions,” said Beatrice Fihn, the executive director of ICAN.

Nuclear-armed and nuclear alliance states should engage constructively in these discussions, she said. “Whilst they will be able to join the treaty once it has been agreed, failure to participate in the negotiations undermines their claims to be committed to a world without nuclear weapons.”

“Nuclear weapons are morally unacceptable. They are intended to kill civilians indiscriminately,” Ms Fihn said. “Their continued existence undermines the moral credibility of every country that relies on them. A treaty to ban them, as a first step towards their elimination, will have real and lasting impact.”

(Thank you to Janet Hudgins, the CPNN reporter for this article.)

Can we abolish all nuclear weapons?