DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

An article by Alice Slater for World Beyond War

This week [on May 22], the Chair of an exciting UN initiative formally named the “United Nations Conference to Negotiate a Legally Binding Instrument to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons, Leading Towards their Total Elimination” released a draft treaty to ban and prohibit nuclear weapons just as the world has done for biological and chemical weapons.  The Ban Treaty is to be negotiated at the UN from June 15 to July 7 as a follow up to the one week of negotiations that took place this past March, attended by more than 130 governments interacting with civil society.  Their input and suggestions were used by the Chair, Costa Rica’s ambassador to the UN, Elayne Whyte Gómez to prepare the draft treaty. It is expected that the world will finally come out of this meeting with a treaty to ban the bomb!

This negotiating conference was established after a series of meetings in Norway, Mexico, and Austria with governments and civil society to examine the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of nuclear war.  The meetings were inspired by the leadership and urging of the International Red Cross to look at the horror of nuclear weapons, not just through the frame of strategy and “deterrence”, but to grasp and examine the disastrous humanitarian consequences that would occur in a nuclear war.   This activity led to a series of meetings culminating in a resolution in the UN General Assembly this fall to negotiate a treaty to ban and prohibit nuclear weapons. The new draft treaty based on the proposals put forth in the March negotiations requires the states to “never under any circumstances … develop, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess, or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices … use nuclear weapons …  carry out any nuclear weapon test”. States are also required to destroy any nuclear weapons they possess and are prohibited from transferring nuclear weapons to any other recipient.
None of the nine nuclear weapons states, US, UK, Russia, France, China, Indian, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea came to the March meeting, although during the vote last fall on whether to go forward with the negotiating resolution in the UN’s First Committee for Disarmament, where the resolution was formally introduced, while the five western nuclear states voted against it, China, India and Pakistan abstained.   And North Korea voted for the resolution to negotiate to ban the bomb! (I bet you didn’t read that in the New York Times!)

By the time the resolution got to the General Assembly, Donald Trump had been elected and those promising votes disappeared.  And at the March negotiations, the US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, flanked by the Ambassadors from England and France, stood outside the closed conference room and held a press conference with a number of  “umbrella states”  which rely on the US nuclear ‘deterrent” to annihilate their enemies (includes NATO  states as well as Australia, Japan, and South Korea)  and announced that “as a mother” who couldn’t want more for her family “than a world without nuclear weapons” she had to “be realistic” and would boycott the meeting and oppose efforts to ban the bomb adding, “Is there anyone that believes that North Korea would agree to a ban on nuclear weapons?”

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Can we abolish all nuclear weapons?

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The last 2015 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) five year review conference broke up without consensus on the shoals of a deal the US was unable to deliver to Egypt to hold a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone Conference in the Middle East.  This promise was made in 1995 to get the required consensus vote from all the states to extend the NPT indefinitely when it was due to expire, 25 years after the five nuclear weapons states in the treaty, US, UK,  Russia, China, and France, promised in 1970 to make “good faith efforts” for nuclear disarmament.  In that agreement all the other countries of the world promised not to get nuclear weapons, except for India, Pakistan, and Israel who never signed and went on to get their own bombs. North Korea had signed the treaty, but took advantage of the NPT’s Faustian bargain to sweeten the pot with a promise to the non-nuclear weapons states for an “inalienable right” to “peaceful” nuclear power, thus giving them the keys to the bomb factory. North Korea got its peaceful nuclear power, and walked out of the treaty to make a bomb.    At the 2015 NPT review, South Africa gave an eloquent speech expressing the state of nuclear apartheid that exists between the nuclear haves, holding the whole world hostage to their security needs and their failure to comply with their obligation to eliminate their nuclear bombs, while working overtime to prevent nuclear proliferation in other countries.

The Ban Treaty draft provides that the Treaty will enter into effect when 40 nations sign and ratify it.  Even if none of the nuclear weapons states join, the ban can be used to stigmatize and shame the “umbrella” states to withdraw from the nuclear “protection” services they are now receiving.    Japan should be an easy case.   The five NATO states in Europe who keep US nuclear weapons based on their soil–Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey– are good prospects for breaking with the nuclear alliance.  A legal ban on nuclear weapons can be used to convince banks and pension funds in a divestment campaign, once it is known the weapons are illegal.   See www.dontbankonthebomb.com

Right now people are organizing all over the world for a Women’s March to Ban the Bomb on June 17, during the ban treaty negotiations, with a big march and rally planned in New York.   See https://www.womenbanthebomb.org/

We need to get as many countries to the UN as possible this June, and pressure our parliaments and capitals to vote to join the treaty to ban the bomb.   And we need to talk it up and let people know that something great is happening now!    To get involved, check out www.icanw.org

DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

A synopsis of the analysis made by the International Campaign to Ban Nuclear Weapons.

In addition to the vote on resolution 71/71 last December, the following analysis is based on whether or not a country is participating in the ongoing negotiations for the treaty and whether or not it has made a public commitment in favor of a ban on nuclear weapons.

FOR THE TREATY

The treaty is supported by all of the African countries except Mali (unclear), all of the Latin American countries except Nicaragua (unclear), and all countries of the Arab region except Morocco, Sudan and Syria (all unclear). No country from these regions is clearly against the treaty. With the exception of the nuclear countries, Japan and South Korea, the other countries of South and East Asia are for the treaty, as well as countries of the Pacific other than Australia and Micronesia.

AGAINST THE TREATY

Here are the countries that are clearly against the treaty:

All of the nuclear countries: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, United Kingdom, United States

Most European countries: Albania, Belgium, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine.

Other allies of Europe and the U.S.: Australia, Canada, Japan, Micronesia, South Korea, Turkey.

Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands and Switzerland are the only major European countries that are not clearly against the treaty. Austria, Ireland and Sweden clearly support the treaty. Netherlands and Switzerland abstained from the vote and, unlike most other European countries, they are participating in the ongoing negotiations.

UNCLEAR POSITION

Many former republics of the Soviet Union are unclear about their position: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan

Other countries that are unclear about their support are Andorra, Finland, Mali, Monaco, Morocco, Nicaragua, Sudan, Syria.

Can we abolish all nuclear weapons?

DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

Statement published on the website of Reaching Critical Will

This statement was delivered by Ms. Ray Acheson, Director of WILPF’s disarmament programme Reaching Critical Will, to the 2017 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee in Vienna, Austria on 3 May 2017.

All of the nuclear-armed states—including those that are states parties to the NPT—are investing in the expansion, development, or so-called modernisation of their nuclear arsenals. These programmes are not just about “increasing the safety and security” of nuclear weapon systems, which is what the nuclear-armed states claim. The “upgrades” in many cases provide new capabilities to the weapon systems. They also extend the lives of these weapon systems beyond the middle of this century, ensuring that the arms race will continue indefinitely.

China is transitioning from liquid-fueled slow-launching missiles to solid-fuel, quicker-launching road-mobile missiles, to make the force more “useable”. Recently China has also sped up the modernisation of its sea-based strategic force, replacing its first generation ballistic nuclear missile-carrying submarines.[i]

France has replaced its sea-launched ballistic missiles for its current class of submarines,[ii] and is also planning to develop new missiles for a new class of submarines.[iii] It has carried out studies for a next-generation air-launched cruise missile.[iv] Half of its nuclear bomber force has been upgraded so far.

Russia is modernising its main silo- and road-mobile ICBM.[v] It is also developing a new silo-based ICBM,[vi] and is upgrading its ballistic missile submarine force.[vii] It’s also working on its nuclear attack submarines and nuclear-capable cruise missiles,[viii] as well as its bombers.[ix]

The UK parliament voted in favour in July 2016 of renewing its Trident nuclear weapon system. This means that the UK’s Vanguard-class submarines will be replaced with the “Dreadnought”-class of submarines.[x] In 2019, the UK will also make a decision about the design of a new warhead.[xi]

The United States is developing a new class of ballistic missile submarines, a new long-range bomber with nuclear capability, a new air-launched cruise missile, a next-generation land-based ICBM, and a new nuclear-capable tactical fighter aircraft. It will also include work on warheads and nuclear command and control facilities.[xii]

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Can we abolish all nuclear weapons?

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More examples, including from non-NPT states parties, can be found in WILPF’s updated study Assuring destruction forever.[xiii]

The only way to prevent states from modernising their nuclear weapons is to prohibit and eliminate these weapons. In the meantime, NPT states parties are already legally obligated to end the nuclear arms race and achieve nuclear disarmament.

This NPT outcome should reflect the serious concern expressed by many states parties about modernisation and development of nuclear weapon systems, and call for the cessation of such programmes, which violate article VI of the NPT and entrench double standards.

[i] “Annual Report to Congress – Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2014,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, 24 April 2014, http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2014_DoD_China_Report.pdf.
[ii] Julien Bonnet, “Tir d’essai réussi pour le missile nucléaire M51,” L’UsineNouvelle, 1 July 2016; “Successful M51 Ballistic Missile SLBM Test by French Defense Procurement Agency DGA,” Navy Recognition, 30 September 2015.
[iii] Speech by François Hollande, Visit to the Strategic Air Forces, 25 February 2015, http://basedoc.diplomatie.gouv.fr/vues/Kiosque/FranceDiplomatie/kiosque.php?fichier=baen2015-02-25.html.
[iv] JeanYves Le Drian, Defense Minister, Closing Remarks – Symposium for 50 Years of Deterrence, 20 November 2014, http://www.defense.gouv.fr/ministre/prises-de-parole-du-ministre/prises-de-parole-de-m.-jean-yves-le-drian/discours-de-cloture-du-colloque-pour-les-50-ans-de-la-dissuasion.
[v] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Russian nuclear forces, 2017,” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Vol. 73, No. 2, pp. 119–120; Pavel Podvig, “Flight tests of Barguzin rail-mobile ICBM are said to begin in 2019,” Russian strategic nuclear forces, 19 January 2017.
[vi] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 120.
[vii] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 121.
[viii] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 123.
[ix] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, op. cit., p. 122.
[x] John Ainslie, The Trident shambles, Scottish CND, March 2016, http://www.banthebomb.org/images/stories/pdfs/shambles.pdf.
[xi] National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015, op. cit., p. 35.
[xii] Kristensen and Norris, op. cit., p. 49.
[xiii] See http://reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Publications/modernization/assuring-destruction-forever-2017.pdf.

DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

An article from ICAN, the International Campaign to Ban Nuclear Weapons

The first draft of the United Nations treaty to prohibit nuclear weapons was released in Geneva, Switzerland, on 22 May. Elayne Whyte Gómez, the Costa Rican ambassador who is presiding over negotiations of the historic accord, presented the text to diplomats and members of civil society, before answering questions from the media.

The draft was developed on the basis of discussions and input received during the first round of negotiations, held at the UN headquarters in New York from 27 to 31 March 2017, with the participation of 132 nations. The negotiations will resume on 15 June and continue until 7 July, with the draft as the basis.

ICAN welcomes the release of the draft as an important milestone in the years-long effort to ban these indiscriminate weapons of mass destruction in light of their inhumane and catastrophic impacts. Once adopted, the treaty will constitute an major step towards the total elimination of nuclear weapons.

The draft provides a solid basis for a strong, categorical prohibition of nuclear weapons. ICAN expects further constructive debate on certain provisions as the process moves forward, and will be campaigning to ensure the strongest possible treaty. We are confident that the treaty can be agreed by 7 July.

“We are particularly happy that the text is rooted in humanitarian principles and builds on existing prohibitions of unacceptable weapons, such as the conventions banning biological and chemical weapons, anti-personnel landmines and cluster munitions,” said Beatrice Fihn, the executive director of ICAN.

Nuclear-armed and nuclear alliance states should engage constructively in these discussions, she said. “Whilst they will be able to join the treaty once it has been agreed, failure to participate in the negotiations undermines their claims to be committed to a world without nuclear weapons.”

“Nuclear weapons are morally unacceptable. They are intended to kill civilians indiscriminately,” Ms Fihn said. “Their continued existence undermines the moral credibility of every country that relies on them. A treaty to ban them, as a first step towards their elimination, will have real and lasting impact.”

(Thank you to Janet Hudgins, the CPNN reporter for this article.)

Can we abolish all nuclear weapons?

DISARMAMENT & SECURITY .

An article by by Alyn Ware for Abolition 2000

On 16 February, approximately 100 countries gathered at the United Nations for the first session of negotiations on a legal agreement to prohibit nuclear weapons. The participants included two nuclear-armed States (China and India) and one NATO country (Netherlands) with the remaining being non-nuclear countries. (See the list of states participating below).

The negotiations are being undertaken in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution 71/258 Taking forward multilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations, adopted on December 23 by a vote of 113 in favour, 35 opposed and 13 abstaining.

This first session of the ban treaty negotiations, which took place on Feb 16, 2017, considered procedural matters such as the election of officers, agenda for the negotiations, rules of procedure and participation of NGOs. The substantive negotiations on the proposed ban treaty will take place March 27-31 and June 17 –July 7.

Ambassador Elayne Whyte Gómez of Costa Rica was elected as Chair of the negotiations. Costa Rica has a strong track record on multilateral nuclear disarmament including being a member of the Latin America and Caribbean Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, being one of the leaders of the initiative which achieved an Advisory Opinion from the International Court of Justice in 1996 on the general illegality of nuclear weapons, chairing the 2013 sessions of the Open Ended Working Group on Taking Forward Nuclear Disarmament Negotiations (OEWG) which along with the 2016 sessions of the OEWG led to the UN General Assembly decision to initiate the ban treaty negotiations, and submitting a Model Nuclear Weapons Convention to the United Nations General Assembly and NPT Review Conferences as a guide to comprehensive nuclear disarmament negotiations.

One of the issues discussed was whether NGOs would be able to participate in the negotiations – meaning that they would have permission to speak and submit written papers – or whether they would only be able to attend and observe the proceedings. The vast majority of states agreed that NGOs would be able to participate. However, states might be able to object to the participation of certain NGOs they believe are not genuinely engaged in the issue, but such objection would need to be accompanied by a written explanation circulated to all participants.

Another issue was whether the proceedings should be bound by consensus or open to a vote. The majority of states supported having the option to vote in order to ensure that one or two states are not able to veto proceedings, and this was reflected in the rules of procedure.

The agenda for the March negotiations will include a general exchange of views on elements for the prohibition treaty, including: principles and objectives, preambular elements, core prohibitions, effective legal measures, legal provisions and norms, institutional arrangements and other provisions.

136 Japanese parliamentarians join nuclear disarmament statement on eve of ban treaty negotiations

On Feb 15, the eve of the first session of the ban treaty negotiations, M.P. Keisuke Suzuki (LDP), Secretary-General of the Japan section of PNND, sent to New York the endorsements of 136 Japanese parliamentarians for A Nuclear-Weapon-Free World: Our Common Good’, a joint statement of legislators and religious leaders from around the world. The endorsers were from all political parties and included former foreign ministers, ambassadors and other high level parliamentarians.

The statement warns about the risks of a nuclear catastrophe, whether by accident, intent or miscalculation, calls upon world leaders to commit to nuclear abolition and to replace nuclear deterrence with shared security approaches to conflicts, and supports a nuclear weapons convention or framework of agreements that eliminate nuclear weapons.

‘In Japan, there is broad support among the public and among parliamentarians for the effort toward a nuclear-weapon-free world,’ said Mr Suzuki (LDP), ‘The number of MPs who responded positively is very encouraging.’

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UNFOLD ZERO consultation as ban treaty negotiations commence

Also on Feb15 in New York, UNFOLD ZERO and PNND held the fourth in a series of Consultations on nuclear disarmament negotiations and parliamentary action.

The consultation included diplomats, lawyers and representatives of disarmament NGOs, parliamentary organisations, youth networks and religious & interfaith organisations. It focused on three key multilateral processes, i.e. the ban treaty negotiations, Non-Proliferation Treaty review cycle, and the 2018 UN High Level Conference on Nuclear Disarmament.

The ban treaty negotiations were introduced by a representative of Austria, the country that submitted the draft resolution to the UN on commencing the negotiations. The 2018 UN High Level Conference was introduced by a representative of Indonesia, the country which submitted (on behalf of the non-Aligned Movement) the resolution by which the UN decided to hold the conference. Some interesting observations and suggestions were made at the consultation.
Here are a few:

The ban treaty is not an alternative to the NPT, but rather a measure where-by non-nuclear States can undertake action to implement their nuclear disarmament obligations;

The UN High Level Conference has the capacity to engage all states: nuclear-armed, allied and non-nuclear.

The 2018 UN High Level Conference could build on the ban treaty negotiations by providing a platform for states to announce their signature and/or ratification, assuming the treaty is negotiated by then;

The High Level Conference could include multiple strands, some of which everyone could agree to and be adopted by consensus, and others of which could be adopted by vote and apply to those who vote in favour;

In addition to pushing for agreements at the High Level Conference on specific multilateral measures, governments should also be encouraged to make individual voluntary commitments and offer concrete measures that they have already adopted (a ‘gift basket’ for the conference).

This approach has been very productive at the Nuclear Security Summits and other high level conferences.

Civil society and the governments leading the process for the UN High Level Conference need to step up the visibility and promotion of the conference.

States that were present at the Feb 16 organisational meeting for the ban treaty (unofficial list)

Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Congo, Costa Rica, Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Ireland, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Lebanon, Lesotho, Libya, Liechtenstein, Madagascar, Malaysia, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mexico, Mongolia, Morocco, Myanmar, Namibia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Qatar, Republic of Moldova, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syrian Arab Republic, Tajikistan, Thailand, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Republic of Tanzania, Uruguay, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe