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Johan Galtung: The Fall of the US Empire
an article by Kirk W. Smith

Video: Galtung: Fall of Empire

Galtung, Johan (2009). The Fall of the US Empire - and Then What? Successors, Regionalization or Globalization? US Fascism or US Blossoming?. Stadtschlaining, Austria, TRANSCEND University Press.



click on photo to enlarge

This book explores a global phenomenon now taking place for the eyes of the world: The Fall of the US Empire. Nothing extraordinary about that, all empires so far have had life cycles, and the US Empire is no exception. In no way should that be confused with any fall of the USA; just to the contrary, the fall of the US Empire may lead to the blossoming of the US Republic. And in no way should the book be seen as "anti-American"; just to the contrary.

Part I, The Present, explores the why, what, how, when and where of the present decline and fall of the US Empire, based on a theory used in 1980 to predict the fall of the Soviet empire.

Part II, The Future, And Then What? explores the world as a whole with three global scenarios, successors, regionalization or globalization, mainly the latter, and the US Republic with two domestic scenarios, US fascism and US blossoming, mainly the latter.

Part III, The Past, is dedicated to a study from 1979 comparing the Western Roman Empire processes with Western imperialism millennia later.

(Editor's note: here are some other excerpts from the video.

Galtung provides a date for the fall of the American empire: 2020. One might not take this seriously, except for the fact that the prediction he made in 1980 for the fall of the Soviet empire was 10 years and he was exactly correct with that prediction.

He says that the same contradictions that made possible his Soviet prediction are now present in the United States. Among the dozens of contradictions, he mentions those between finance economy and real economy and between the economy and nature (i.e. environmental pollution and destruction), the competition with Europe and China, the military contradiction between terrorism and state terrorism, and the increasingly burdensome support of Israel. As Israel founders and US support for it diminishes, Galtung sees a great danger that the Americans will scapegoat Israel with a rise of anti-semitism.

During the years leading up to the collapse of its empire, he predicts that the United States will realize that it is not gaining from foreign wars, will reduce its war-making and, eventually, withdraw from its global network of military bases. Also, he predicts that the country will realize that its exploitative relations abroad are not benficial in the long term and will increasingly replace them with equitable trade instead.

Although the American empire is destined to collapse, the country can survive as a republic, especially if it follows his advice to work at the local municipal level instead of relying on Washington. He recommends Americans to organize local cooperatives and local food production instead of importation and agro-business, local banks instead of investment banks, local construction of affordable housing to provide jobs as well as housing. In this way Americans can protect themselves against the loss of their empire.

DISCUSSION

Question(s) related to this article:


Johan Galtung, dean of peace researchers, What is his latest analysis?

Understanding the culture of peace, What are the key videos?

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LATEST READER COMMENT:

The New Year's greetings for 2015 by Johan Galtung should serve as a "wake-up call" for all who are concerned about our future.

2014 no good. May all good forces unite in 2015!

By Johan Galtung, TFF Associate
TFF PressInfo # 299
Lund, Sweden, December 31, 2014

Here is a list of 15 current conflicts-violence relations, avoiding identifying conflicts with violent conflict arenas:

• USA-Japan-South Korea vs North Korea vs China

• USA-ASEAN vs China-Taiwan and Japan vs Korea over China Sea islands

• USA-NATO-Japan vs China-Russia-SCO over encircling

• USA-EU vs Russia over Ukraine-Georgia membership in NATO-EU

• USA-led coalition/NATO vs Many, diverse parties in Afghanistan

• USA-led coalition/NATO vs Many, diverse parties in Iraq

• USA-Shia-Iran(?) vs Arabia-Sunni-caliphate/ISIS-Turkey(?)

• Kurds vs Turkey-Syria-Iraq-Iran over autonomy

• Israel vs Palestine over The Holy Land/Cana’an

• USA-Israel vs Arab-Muslim countries over Israel vs Palestine

• USA vs 134 states over terrorism using state torture-sniping-droning

• USA-UK-Canada-Australia-New Zealand (“Five eyes”) vs the World, spying

• USA vs China (USA-EU vs Eurasia) over the shape of geopolitics

• USA-UK-France-Italy-Norway vs Libya-Mali-Sudan-Somalia etc. in Africa

• USA vs Latin America/Caribbean over equality of the Americas.


The most striking feature is, indeed, the presence of one country, the USA, in almost all of them. Why?



The central role of the United States

Well, that is what world hegemony is about. There could be resistance, and increasingly unwise and desperate US efforts to hang on.

The only bright point is the last one - normalizing relations with Cuba - if that could be followed by recognizing Palestine and North Korea and UN conferences over Afghanistan, Iraq and Ukraine it would help a lot. May it happen!

A remarkable feature is the US lack not only of clout, but of basic understanding; Washington doing a lousy job intellectually.

Take one, the “US-led coalition in Iraq”: from supporting Saddam to attacking-chasing him out of Kuwait and executing him, bombing more than a decade, sanctions, invading in 2003, withdrawing, ISIS, and so on.

Writes the International New York Times 23-12-2014:
“Iraqis see little hope for uniting a divided land”.

There are different flags all over; not strange as “modern Iraq was created nearly a century ago by the fusion of three Ottoman provinces–Basra, Baghdad and Mosul”.

But not a word about the Sykes-Picot cancer and two UK foreign office civil servants doing the “creation” of Iraq. Yes, the Ottoman empire had been crumbling for some time, was doomed; but that does not mean that one can pick up three pieces and glue them together into a country.

Shame on anyone who did not predict this kind of break-up, from the beginning in March 2003.

What kind of glue across Sunni-Shia, Arab-Kurd divides do U.S. elites offer right now?

“Promoting mixed marriages between Sunnis and Shias by offering cash incentives” and “mandatory military service bringing communities together”.

It's money, money, money; force, force, force; the US intellectual horizon, devoid of any respect, even understanding, of culture, religion, language, history, future together, dignity.


The allies of the U.S.

OK, the US leadership lives in a bubble of well-filtered single-minded people. . ...more.


This report was posted on April 1, 2014.